I’ve taken a bit of a break from FinTwit for a week or so, depending on when the muses call me back/I get bored enough to start posting again. I tend to go through these cycles, often triggered by one of two reasons: 1) Drama/”politics” avoidance - As noted by the ever-salient
Great article Lily. I hope a lot of people read it. I know I wish someone would have woke me up to many of these things last year. After the COVID crash, unfortunately I was influenced by all the permabears on FinTwit who kept saying that was nothing, the big crash was still coming and coming and coming, etc. By the time woke up and realized a lot of what you are talking about here and unsubscribed/stopped following these sources, it had cost me a lot of money as the market climbed. Oh well, lesson learned. Thank you for posting all your insights.
I've traded markets since 1990. I like trading options. If I may crudely and brutually summarise the logic here: pathing matters. Taleb teaches us about the (outsize) impact of the single event in the tail of the distribution. Some days, it pays NOT to be in the market.
Lily's advice re be cautious about believeing bad news bears is a reflection that over decades, humanity does manage to progress - it's a brave person who shorts humainty's tech cleverness. Just ask Cook, Musk or Bezos.
Great article Lily. I hope a lot of people read it. I know I wish someone would have woke me up to many of these things last year. After the COVID crash, unfortunately I was influenced by all the permabears on FinTwit who kept saying that was nothing, the big crash was still coming and coming and coming, etc. By the time woke up and realized a lot of what you are talking about here and unsubscribed/stopped following these sources, it had cost me a lot of money as the market climbed. Oh well, lesson learned. Thank you for posting all your insights.
I've traded markets since 1990. I like trading options. If I may crudely and brutually summarise the logic here: pathing matters. Taleb teaches us about the (outsize) impact of the single event in the tail of the distribution. Some days, it pays NOT to be in the market.
Lily's advice re be cautious about believeing bad news bears is a reflection that over decades, humanity does manage to progress - it's a brave person who shorts humainty's tech cleverness. Just ask Cook, Musk or Bezos.